Israel's Limited Strike in Isfahan Could Rid Iran of the Need to Retaliate - Middle East News - Haaretz.com
These are historic days in the Middle East, but for all the wrong reasons. On Saturday night, Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time ever, sending hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones.
The attack, which was a response to the killing of Iranian general Hassan Mahdavi (also known as Mohammad Reza Zahedi) in Syria two weeks prior, was completely thwarted with the help of Western countries and friendly Arab countries.
On Friday morning came Israel's response. According to reports from Iran, Israel targeted a military installation near the city of Isfahan, which is also home to some Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iranian-made drones at the military parade in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday.Credit: Majid Asgaripour / Reuters
What's especially important is who's behind the attack. Officials within the Biden administration have already made it clear that this is a kinetic Israeli action on Iranian soil. It appears we're closer than ever to a broad regional war, despite the fact that the international community will most likely make great effort to deescalate tensions.
This action is a first-of-its-kind. Previously, Israel had been accused of striking a drone factory in Kermanshah roughly two years ago, as well as a series of assassinations of top Iranian nuclear personnel.
Until now, there haven't been any attacks like the one Iran currently experienced: A clear and resounding strike – and one that seemingly cannot be hidden or denied. Despite this, two hours after the strike, Iranian media began to claim that the attack was thwarted, and that in fact nothing had happened. This could be an attempt to deescalate in order to rid Tehran of the need to retaliate.
Iran's missile and drone barrage last Saturday night was a strategic shift on Tehran's part. For years, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's (whose 85th birthday is Friday) regime has had a policy of attacking Israel, yet also showing patience.
Iran has backed militias and terror organizations that have created a "ring of fire" around Israel, according to the vision of Qassem Soleimani, but has usually avoided a direct confrontation with Israel.
Israel's attacks in the so-called war between wars have focused on Syria, combining targeted killings of Iran Revolutionary Guards and airstrikes against military installations and convoys of weapons that were being smuggled. These attacks were typically met with minor Iranian responses.
This time, hundreds of missiles were fired at Israel – seemingly conveying Tehran's increased perception of strength, as well as Iran's estimate that Israel wouldn't commit to an all-out war while battling two fronts – Gaza and Lebanon.
At least on the public level, Iran isn't worried that its strike against Israel was thwarted. Tehran has set its sights on the future, added more threats against Israel and even threw out hints on the possibility of advancing its nuclear program to its ultimate goal: a nuclear bomb.
Israeli officials also didn't believe that thwarting Iran's attack was the end of the story. This was a widespread attack that was deliberately aimed at sovereign Israeli territory (some ballistic missiles hit Nevatim Air Base, the main focus point of the attack). The Israeli nighttime response seems to be more limited and focused, and at first glance more effective. Iran's air defense systems are inferior to Israel's, their missile interception capability is limited, and Iran does not rely on intelligence help from Sunni countries, as was reportedly the case when the attack on Israel was foiled.
In large parts of the Middle East, Iran is less popular than Israel. It's a murderous dictatorship, which abuses its people and undermines rival governments and abets and finances terrorism throughout the region. No Arab ruler shed tears this morning for the attack on Iranian sovereignty; it can only be guessed that they are worried that the fire will spread in a way that will destabilize their own countries.
If the Israeli strike in fact targeted one site in Isfahan, which is not directly related to Iran's nuclear program, it appears to be more of a demonstration of capabilities, as well as a message to the regime: we can cause you vast damage. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been threatening to attack Iran for 20 years, has realized a dream, or at least part thereof. The question is what about us, the people.
An attempt to rock the boat
Besides the direct response to the Iranian attack, the action in Iran (which Israel has so far not taken official responsibility for) may reflect a degree of frustration from the regional strategic trap. The war in Gaza began with the Hamas massacre on October 7. A day later, Hezbollah joined the fray with low-intensity fighting on the Lebanese border.
More than six months later, Israel has still not achieved its declared objectives. Most of the hostages have not returned (110 were returned last November; 133 are still held by Hamas and many of them are dead). Hamas is not yet totally defeated, and no solution has been found to push Hezbollah forces from the northern border. Tens of thousands of Israelis, from the north and south, remain refugees in their own country.
On Thursday evening, Channel 12's investigative program "Uvda" aired a long report by journalist Itai Engel, from the abandoned town of Metula in northern Israel. This reality has been frequently described in the past few months, in this paper too, but seeing it is invaluable. Many viewers reacted with shock: how can it be that Israel evacuated people from the entire border region and allows a terrorist organization, far weaker than the IDF, to pummel communities almost without hindrance?
A house in the northern Israeli city of Metula after it was hit by a Hezbollah missile, as pictured from Lebanon, on Thursday.Credit: Mohammad Zaatari / AP
This is the general mood in the country, and has seeped into the leadership. Iran, which continues to finance and encourage Hezbollah and Hamas, is largely responsible for the bloody mess Israel is stuck in, and is barely paying a price. Besides the response, last night's strike should be considered an attempt to rock the regional boat in order to reach new arrangements that will stop the multi-front fighting and underscore to the parties involved the price that can be expected from an all-out regional war.
In the background, on Thursday, The Wall Street Journal, which has close ties to Netanyahu's office, published another optimistic report about a pending normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, do not be mistaken: Israel had the full right to respond to Iran's attack. But, when it is led by a prime minister who long ago lost the support of the majority of the public, and whose legitimacy for any action is strongly doubted, the government is playing with fire against Iran. This could still end very badly for everyone.